Pilot 7.5 | Seasonal preparedness

Pilot 7.5 | Seasonal preparedness

Transportation and tourism sectors are dependent on inter-annual climate variability and also affected by climate change. Transportation safety is strongly weather dependent during the winter season, when road and driving conditions are challenging. Timely installation of winter tires is essential for safe driving conditions when temperature falls to near 0°C and roads might be covered by ice and snow. Forecasting the onset/offset of winter season, especially the starting time of winter tire installation is important as much for tire companies and public for preparedness and logistic reasons. Tire companies also need reliable seasonal forecast for planning and managing their retail activities, such as distribution of right tire types. The newly developed extended range forecast products for the assessment of onset/offset date of winter driving conditions and the long-range forecast allow tire companies to plan and manage their activities, increase their competiveness and economical benefit but also transportation safety.

As climate is key resource also for tourism, climate change is slowly entering into decision-making in a range of tourism stakeholders. The impacts of climate change may create economic opportunities as well, for instance, in the Mediterranean region the touristic season is foreseen to lengthen, increasing the flows of the tourists. Tourism stakeholders need information on future seasonal climatic conditions during different seasons that make possible for them to adapt to the forthcoming changes in the length and quality of climate-dependent tourism seasons. The newly created seasonal tourist indicators for the Greek tourism companies foster the competitive relationships between destinations determining precisely the tourism demand and thus the profitability of tourism enterprises.

/ Objectives
  • Co-design and develop extended and long-range forecasted climate outlooks on onset and offset of seasons including uncertainty information for the selected regions building on Copernicus services
  • Identify the correlations between climate change and touristic sector.
  • To assess the usability of ERF and LRF for the transportation and tourism sector
  • To develop beneficial and user-friendly seasonal climate products / indicators for the tourism and transportation sector, e.g. tire enterprises
  • Inform tourism stakeholders concerning current trends, future climatic conditions and their impacts to seasonal tourism and the alterations of touristic season adapted to climate change.
  • Raise awareness of the stakeholders interested in the touristic and transportation sector to adopt more sustainable ways and increase their climate resilience.
/ Partners


/ Key Users

Nokian tires Oy, INSETE (Institute of the Greek Tourism Confederation)

/ Key Datasets

In-situ observations, gridded observational data-sets (10 km resolution for Finland) for selected pilot areas, ERA5 re-analysis with 31 k resolution for initial correlation analysis and verification during production; European seasonal forecasts (extended range and long range on 1-degree resolution)

from C3S data store for service production (3D fields of geopotential heights, specific humidity, temperature, precipitation and U and V components of wind).

Auxiliary data from tire companies on the previous seasonal demands.

/ ID Card
Expected outcome of the pilot

The pilot aims to increase preparedness and resilience of transportation and tourism sectors to inter-annual climate variability through user-oriented climate services that provide tailored forecast products for various time-scales. The pilot will generate:

  • tailored sub-seasonal and seasonal climate outlooks for Finland focusing on winter weather conditions, including onset and offset of winter tyre season, freezing temperature and snow conditions
  • sub-seasonal (6-week) climate outlooks and 7-days forecasts of climate-tourism indicators for 18 UNESCO World Heritage Sites in Greece

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